2017/10/07

Arctic Sea Ice Melting Season Over

Season is now over and nothing exceptional

2017/09/27

I See No Ships (hurricanes)

Why is everyone trying to minimise the suffering of many thousands of people by claiming there has been a long period of no hurricanes in the Atlantic (adding to hit mainland US). There has been no real lull in the number of hurricanes:
e.g from Roy Spencer:
---------------------------------------
The 11-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes

September 21st, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall...

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Yet from Wiki there are these recorded cat 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes:

2001
Iris
October 89
145 mph (230 km/h)
948 hPa
2001
Michelle
November 34
140 mph (220 km/h)
933 hPa
2002
Lili
October 23
145 mph (230 km/h)
938 hPa
2003
Fabian
August 31-September 5
145 mph (230 km/h)
939 hPa
2003
Isabel
September 11-14,
165 mph (270 km/h)
915 hPa
2004
Charley
August 13
150 mph (240 km/h)
941 hPa
2004
Frances
August 28-September 2
145 mph (230 km/h)
935 hPa
2004
Karl
September 20-21
145 mph (230 km/h)
938 hPa
2004
Ivan
September 9-14
165 mph (270 km/h)
910 hPa
2005
Dennis
July 810
150 mph (240 km/h)
930 hPa
2005
Emily
July 16,
160 mph (260 km/h)
929 hPa
2005
Katrina
August 2829
175 mph (280 km/h)
902 hPa
2005
Rita
September 21-22,
180 mph (285 km/h)
895 hPa
2005
Wilma
October 19,
185 mph (295 km/h)
882 hPa
2007
Dean
August 18-21,
175 mph (280 km/h)
905 hPa
2007
Felix
September 34,
175 mph (280 km/h)
929 hPa
2008
Gustav
August 30-31
155 mph (250 km/h)
941 hPa
2008
Ike
September 48
145 mph (230 km/h)
935 hPa
2008
Omar
October 16
130 mph (215 km/h)
958 hPa
2008
Paloma
November 8
145 mph (230 km/h)
944 hPa
2009
Bill
August 19-20
130 mph (215 km/h)
943 hPa
2010
Danielle
August 27
130 mph (215 km/h)
942 hPa
2010
Earl
August 30-September 2
145 mph (230 km/h)
927 hPa
2010
Igor
September 12-17
155 mph (250 km/h)
924 hPa
2010
Julia
September 15
140 mph (220 km/h)
948 hPa
2011
Katia
September 6
140 mph (220 km/h)
942 hPa)
2011
Ophelia
October 2
140 mph (220 km/h)
940 hPa
2014
Gonzalo
October 15-17
145 mph (230 km/h)
940 hPa
2015
Joaquin
October 13
155 mph (250 km/h)
931 hPa
2016
Nicole
October 12-13
140 mph (220 km/h)
950 hPa)
2016
Matthew
October 1,
165 mph (270 km/h)
934 hPa
2017
Harvey
August 25-26
130 mph (215 km/h)
938 hPa
2017
Jose
September 8-10
155 mph (250 km/h)
938 hPa
2017
Irma
September 59,
185 mph (295 km/h)
914 hPa
2017
Maria
September 18-20,
175 mph (280 km/h)
908 hPa
You have to be blind in more than one eye to miss these

2017/06/02

What Roy Spencer Thinks of Europe

Just seen an exchange of posts on Spencer's Blog

stavro mueller says:
Salvatore Del Prete says: June 2, 2017 at 5:50 AM
Trump you did the right thing ! Excellent president the best we have ever had.
————
Really?
few other leaders have been made the ultimate laughing stock of the rest of the world.
Even Bush and Regan were more respected
  • I don’t care if we are a laughingstock to a bunch of countries whose claim to fame is artists and musicians who died hundreds of years ago. Some of us laugh at you, too. Your countries are slowly dying, culturally and economically.
    Good luck.
phew!

2017/05/05

Nenana Ice Classic is over for 2017

The Nenana Ice classic is a non-profit corporation formed by the residents of Nenana, Alaska, for the purpose of conducting an annual ice pool contest under special statutory authority enacted the first state legislature in 1960. The Association was incorporated by the State of Alaska in December 1972. Previously it had operated as an unincorporated association.

The idea is to guess the exact time of the ice break-up on the nenana river
This contest has been running since 1917 and consequently gives an idea of thermal conditions on the river over time. Unless dynamite is used(!) the time of breakup is difficult to contest and calling "Fraud" even more contentious.

Three plots are given 2 timed from the start of the year and one from the vernal equinox (the latter uses a fixed point in solar time).

Looks like the break up occurred at a time predicted by the slope of the average










2017/01/23

Arctic Sea Ice to December 2016



First plot shows rate of change per day - Note wild fluctuations from October
Second plot show Extent on day of year - A few have line fits which show that the extent reduction is a reasonable fit to a straight line
The final plot shows the usual plus a rate of change per year.